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Conformal Prediction Papers

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A collection of academic papers on the subject of conformal prediction.

The wordcloud of recent conformal prediction papers from ICLR, ICML and NeurIPS

Timeline:

2024   2023   2022   2021   < 2021  

2024

Author(s) Title Venue Code
Yan et al. Provably Robust Conformal Prediction with Improved Efficiency ICLR
Quach et al. Conformal Language Modeling ICLR
Angelopoulos et al. Conformal Risk Control ICLR [Code]
Sun et al. Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting ICLR [Code]
Farinhas et al. Non-Exchangeable Conformal Risk Control ICLR [Code]
Guha et al. Conformal Prediction via Regression-as-Classification ICLR
Kang et al. COLEP: Certifiably Robust Learning-Reasoning Conformal Prediction via Probabilistic Circuits ICLR
Zargarbashi et al. Conformal Inductive Graph Neural Networks ICLR [Code]
Mohri et al. Language Models with Conformal Factuality Guarantees ICML [Code]
Kang et al. Rob-FCP: Certifiably Byzantine-Robust Federated Conformal Prediction ICML [Code]
Qi et al. Conformalized Survival Distributions: A Generic Post-Process to Increase Calibration ICML [Code]
Angelopoulos et al. Online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes ICML [Code]
Kiyani et al. Conformal Prediction with Learned Features ICML
Zargarbashi et al. Robust Yet Efficient Conformal Prediction Sets ICML
Li et al. Data Poisoning Attacks against Conformal Prediction ICML
Zhou et al. Conformalized Adaptive Forecasting of Heterogeneous Trajectories ICML [Code]
Podkopaev et al. Adaptive Conformal Inference by Betting ICML
Liu et al. Multi-Source Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift ICML [Code]
Prinster et al. Conformal Prediction for AI Agents ICML
Zheng et al. Conformal Predictions under Markovian Data ICML
Xu et al. Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time-series ICML [Code]
Cresswell et al. Conformal Prediction Sets Improve Human Decision Making ICML [Code]
Liu et al. The Pitfalls and Promise of Conformal Inference Under Adversarial Attacks ICML [Code]
Huang et al. Conformal Prediction for Deep Classifier via Label Ranking ICML [Code]
Ai et al. Not all distributional shifts are equal: Fine-grained robust conformal inference ICML [Code]
Deutschmann et al. Conformal Autoregressive Generation: Beam Search with Coverage Guarantees AAAI
Qian et al. Towards Modeling Uncertainties of Self-Explaining Neural Networks via Conformal Prediction AAAI
Bethell et al. Robust Uncertainty Quantification Using Conformalised Monte Carlo Prediction AAAI [Code]
Cleaveland et al. Conformal Prediction Regions for Time Series Using Linear Complementarity Programming AAAI [Code]

2023

Author(s) Title Venue Code
Teng et al. Predictive Inference with Feature Conformal Prediction ICLR [Code]
Jung et al. Batch Multivalid Conformal Prediction ICLR [Code]
Plassier et al. Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shift ICML
Bhatnagar et al. Improved online conformal prediction via strongly adaptive online learning ICML [Code]
Xu et al. Sequential predictive conformal inference for time series ICML [Code]
Liang et al. Conformal inference is (almost) free for neural networks trained with early stopping ICML [Code]
Zaffran et al. Conformal prediction with missing values ICML [Code]
Prinster et al. JAWS-X: Addressing Efficiency Bottlenecks of Conformal Prediction Under Standard and Feedback Covariate Shift ICML [Code]
Salinas et al. Optimizing hyperparameters with conformal quantile regression ICML [Code]
Teneggi et al. How to trust your diffusion model: a convex optimization approach to conformal risk control ICML [Code]
Zargarbashi et al. Conformal prediction sets for graph neural networks ICML [Code]
Straitouri et al. Improving expert predictions with conformal prediction ICML [Code]
Nettasinghe et al. Extending conformal prediction to hidden Markov models with exact validity via de Finetti's theorem for Markov chains ICML
Lin et al. Fast online value-maximizing prediction sets with conformal cost control ICML [Code]
Humbert et al. One-shot federated conformal prediction ICML [Code]
Guha et al. Conformalization of sparse generalized linear models ICML [Code]
Lu et al. Federated conformal predictors for distributed uncertainty quantification ICML [Code]
Auer et al. Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Modern Hopfield Networks NeurIPS [Code]
Dey et al. Conformal Prediction Sets for Ordinal Classification NeurIPS
Laghuvarapu et al. CoDrug: Conformal Drug Property Prediction with Density Estimation under Covariate Shift NeurIPS [Code]
Angelopoulos et al. Conformal PID Control for Time Series Prediction NeurIPS [Code]
Ding et al. Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction with Many Classes NeurIPS [Code]
Alaa et al. Conformal Meta-learners for Predictive Inference of Individual Treatment Effects NeurIPS [Code]
Sun et al. Conformal Prediction for Uncertainty-Aware Planning with Diffusion Dynamics Model NeurIPS
Huang et al. Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networks NeurIPS [Code]
Sharma et al. PAC-Bayes Generalization Certificates for Learned Inductive Conformal Prediction NeurIPS [Code]
Bashari et al. Derandomized novelty detection with FDR control via conformal e-values NeurIPS [Code]
Martinez et al. Approximating Full Conformal Prediction at Scale via Influence Functions AAAI [Code]
Ghosh et al. Improving Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Classifiers via Neighborhood Conformal Prediction: Novel Algorithm and Theoretical Analysis AAAI [Code]
Chen et al. IPOC: An Adaptive Interval Prediction Model based on Online Chasing and Conformal Inference for Large-Scale Systems KDD
Kong et al. Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning KDD

2022

Author(s) Title Venue Code
Gendler et al. Adversarially Robust Conformal Prediction ICLR [Code]
Stutz et al. Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers ICLR
Bai et al. Efficient and Differentiable Conformal Prediction with General Function Classes ICLR [Code]
Zaffran et al. Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series ICML [Code]
Fisch et al. Conformal Prediction Sets with Limited False Positives ICML
Ndiaye et al. Stable Conformal Prediction Sets ICML [Code]
Marx et al. Modular Conformal Calibration ICML
Einbinder et al. Training Uncertainty-Aware Classifiers with Conformalized Deep Learning NeurIPS [Code]
Liu et al. Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regression NeurIPS [Code]
Bastani et al. Practical Adversarial Multivalid Conformal Prediction NeurIPS [Code]
Sesia et al. Conformal Frequency Estimation with Sketched Data NeurIPS [Code]
Lin et al. Conformal Prediction with Temporal Quantile Adjustments NeurIPS [Code]
Taufiq et al. Conformal Off-Policy Prediction in Contextual Bandits NeurIPS
Lu et al. Fair Conformal Predictors for Applications in Medical Imaging AAAI [Code]
Kaur et al. iDECODe: In-Distribution Equivariance for Conformal Out-of-Distribution Detection AAAI [Code]
Xu et al. Modern Theoretical Tools for Designing Information Retrieval System KDD
Li et al. PAC-Wrap: Semi-Supervised PAC Anomaly Detection KDD

2021

Author(s) Title Venue Code
Angelopoulos et al. Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction ICLR [Code]
Fisch et al. Efficient Conformal Prediction via Cascaded Inference with Expanded Admission ICLR [Code]
Xu et al. Conformal Prediction Interval for Dynamic Time-Series ICML [Code]
Teng et al. T-SCI: A Two-Stage Conformal Inference Algorithm with Guaranteed Coverage for Cox-MLP ICML
Fisch et al. Few-Shot Conformal Prediction with Auxiliary Tasks ICML [Code]
Cherubin et al. Exact Optimization of Conformal Predictors via Incremental and Decremental Learning ICML [Code]
Stankeviciute et al. Conformal Time-series Forecasting NeurIPS [Code]
Fong et al. Conformal Bayesian Computation NeurIPS [Code]
Gibbs et al. Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift NeurIPS
Sesia et al. Conformal Prediction using Conditional Histograms NeurIPS [Code]
Ross et al. Tractable Density Estimation on Learned Manifolds with Conformal Embedding Flows NeurIPS [Code]

Before 2021

Author(s) Title Venue Code
Franca et al. Conformal Symplectic and Relativistic Optimization NeurIPS 2020
Ndiaye et al. Computing full conformal prediction set with approximate homotopy NeurIPS 2019 [Code]
Vovk V. Cross-conformal predictors Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence 2015

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