viva-ronaldo / run-ni-stv Goto Github PK

Simulate the NI Assembly elections Single Transferable Vote count process, with a view to predicting full results from the first preferences stage. Uses vote data from Elections NI.

A prerequisite for this is the production of a matrix of probabilities for a vote to transfer from party A to party B, which is not the same thing as the average fraction of transfers party B actually received from party A. Transfer fractions must be adjusted depending on the presence of party B as a transfer option, and the number of other parties present as options.