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dsai_hw1_time_series_forecasting's Introduction

資料科學與人工智慧競技作業-預測台電尖峰負載

問題說明

利用 2017/1/1 ~ 2019/2/28 的台電歷史資料,預測未來七天 (2019/4/2~2019/4/8) 的「電力尖峰負載(MW)」。

load

使用資料

台灣電力公司_過去電力供需資訊:HW1/data/elec_merge.csv

政府行政機關辦公日曆表:HW1/data/calendar.csv

訓練資料與測試資料

使用 2017~2018 年的資料進行訓練,並以 2019 年 1 月及 2 月的資料進行測試。

load over time

分析假日與非假日的電力負載

觀察到假日的尖峰負載明顯低於非假日。

holiday

嘗試方法

  • LSTM with Univariate Input and Vector Output
  • Encoder-Decoder LSTM with Univariate Input
  • Encoder-Decoder LSTM with Multivariate Input

最終使用的模型為 Encoder-Decoder LSTM with Multivariate Input。

測試資料結果

result

整體 RMSE 為 845.346。

最終預測結果

RMSE 1820.940367

連結

Jupyter nbviewer 連結

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