Using Machine Learning/fbProphet to forecast Electric Vehicle uptake, Crude Oil/Resource prices, Electricity Generation/Consumption and Global Temperatures.

• Mino Peric
• Erika Hoshino
• Yao Ding
• Srivasthan Krishna

The premise of this project was to analyse and forecast a number of key economic and resource-based indicators in relation to electric vehicle uptake in Australia. Additionally, machine-learning, specifically fbProphet, was used to test/train a model and future-forecast results based on historical data.

The project was split into two stages – analysing historical data and future-forecasting predictions based on historical data sets. As a result, the project focused on a number of key areas, including:

• The rate of electric vehicle uptake in Australia, both nationally and by state,
• The generation and consumption of Australian electricity, specifically relating to fossil fuels, both nationally and by state,
• The historical price performance of WTI Crude Oil,
• The historical price performance of Lithium Carbonate, and
• The rise of global surface temperatures.

Machine-learning models were built, tested and trained using Python, Pandas and fbProphet.

Budget Direct, 2020, Electric Car Sales 2020, https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/car-insurance/research/electric-car-sales-australia.html

Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, 2020, Australian electricity generation - fuel mix calendar year 2020, https://www.energy.gov.au/australian-electricity-generation-fuel-mix-2020

Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, 2020, Australian energy consumption - fuel type, https://www.energy.gov.au/data/australian-energy-consumption-fuel-type

Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, 2020, Australian energy mix, state and territory 2019-20, https://www.energy.gov.au/data/australian-energy-mix-state-and-territory-2019-20

Electric Vehicle Council, 2019, State of Electric Vehicles, https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/EVC_annual_report_-V3-Aug-13th-1.pdf

KAPSARC, 2022, World Daily Spot Prices for Crude Oil WTI and Brent, https://datasource.kapsarc.org/explore/dataset/spot-prices-for-crude-oil-and-petroleum-products/information/

NOAA, 2022, Climate at a Glance, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series

Statista, 2022, Average lithium carbonate price from 2010 to 2021, https://www.statista.com/statistics/606350/battery-grade-lithium-carbonate-price/

Swart, S., 2022, Australian Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Points Report 2022 – Do We Have Enough?, https://www.savvy.com.au/media-releases/australian-electric-vehicle-charging-points-report-do-we-have-enough-2022/