mberk / rss-euro-2020-prediction-competition Goto Github PK

I'm starting a project to predict football scores based on previous odds and previous scores and I was wondering if you would like to stay in touch with me

Hello, I was wondering, what happens to my score if my submission's probability prediction does not add to 1? For example, if I predict Team 1 to beat Team 2 at 90% probability and the opposite at 20% probability (even though it should be 10%).

Hi,

I have emailed a similar comment several days ago so apologies if this is duplication but I wanted to ensure my question was seen before the knockouts resumed. Thanks for running the tournament, I'm enjoying keeping track of the table and my anonymous competitors!

On the group stages, probabilities are normalised by L43-45 of'score_submissions.py to ensure all possible outcomes sum to a probability of 1.

For the knockout rounds, this is not done again. It seems that the competition has defined draws as impossible events in knockout round matches, suggesting P(team1)+P(team2) =1. In practice, a non-zero likelihood is given to the impossible draw . Therefore, should knockout round team1 and team2 probabilities similarly be normalised akin to how group matches are, but ignoring the probability for draws please?

i.e

df_ko["p_team1_win"] = df_ko["p_team1_win"]/df_ko[["p_team1_win", "p_team2_win"]].sum(axis=1)

Thanks for any clarification you can give here!

Again in the interests of disclosure I am asking this because I have non zero probabilities for draws in knockout round games, a subtlety to the rules that I did not appreciate when submitting my entry.

Best wishes

Hello thanks for hosting this competition, sounds very interesting, I would like to clarify rule #2 :
"Entrants are free to use any data they wish, provided it is publicly available".
Does data scraped from websites count as "publicly available"?

I also assume there is a "one submission per person" rule...

Hello, when it says "two entries with the best log-score (see Scoring below) will win a prize (see Prizes below) along with a third entry chosen by the judging panel based on the methodology used".

Are we allowed to include a written report in our submission file to improve our chances of getting the prize for "third entry chosen by the judging panel based on the methodology used"?

Hi there, I was wondering if you still had ambitions to get the live leaderboard up and running? It would be really interesting to see how we were doing compared to the other teams, even if the updates were only infrequent.