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##Preliminary Analysis of (2012) Violation Data**

Questions:

• What are the overall trends of violations over time?
  • Are there "cold"/"hot" months e.g., cyclical peaks of violations?
• When will the next violation occur (by category)?

Preliminary Look

Let us look at the total violations per month by category (in 2012 only)

• Air Pollutants & Odors
• Animals & Pests
• Biohazards
• Building Conditions
• Chemical Hazards
• Garbage & Refuse
• Retail Food
• Unsanitary Conditions
• Vegetation

Overall Summary: {Min, Median, Mean, Max}

$`Air Pollutants and Odors`
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
      2       2       2       2       2       2 

$`Animals and Pests`
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
    4.0    12.0    14.5    15.0    20.0    22.0 

$Biohazards
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
  1.000   1.000   1.000   2.333   3.000   5.000 

$`Building Conditions`
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
  1.000   2.000   3.500   5.167   8.250  14.000 

$`Chemical Hazards`
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
  1.000   1.000   1.000   2.429   4.000   5.000 

$`Garbage and Refuse`
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
   4.00    6.75   11.00   10.50   11.50   24.00 

$`Retail Food`
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
      1       1       1       1       1       1 

$`Unsanitary Conditions`
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
  2.000   3.000   5.000   6.917   7.000  26.000 

$Vegetation
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
  2.000   2.500   6.000   6.091   7.500  16.000 

Observed Patterns over Time:

• Air Pollutants & Retail Food
  • first observed in December 2012
• Animals & Pests
  • inverted U-shape from May to November, peaking in August/September
• Biohazards & Chemical Hazards
  • not observed monthly
• Building Conditions
  • increasing from August into November
• Garbage & Refuse
  • peaks into July
• Unsanitary Conditions
  • peaks in June & September
• Vegetation
  • increases into the June/July
  • drops off in August

Summary:

• Summer violations: Garbage & Refuse, Unsanitary Conditions, Vegetation
• Fall violations: Building Conditions, Unsanitary Conditions
• Year-round violations: Animals & Pests, Garbage & Refuse

Next Steps:

• Collect data across years (observed patterns may be specific to 2012)
  • What patterns persist across years?
• Run seasonality analysis of time-series data
  • Decomposition of observed time-series data: trend + seasonal + random
• Run predictions of event occurrence
  • Short-term forecasts using e.g., exponential smoothing, ARIMA models