US Candy Production by Month From January 1972 to August 2017

Context: Halloween begins frenetic candy consumption that continues into the Christmas holidays and New Year’s Day, when people often make (usually short-lived) resolutions to lose weight. But all this consumption first needs production. The graph shows the relevant data from the industrial production index and its stunning seasonality Content: The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. This dataset tracks industrial production every month from January 1972 to August 2017.

1.load library and datasets

2.Exploratory data analysis

3.Time series Decomposition

4.Test stationarity of the time series

5.Model building - Moving Average Method(SMA, WMA and EMA)

6.Model building by using auto ARIMA

7.Relevant error computation and comparison

8.Forecasting candy production for September through December 2017

Source: https://www.kaggle.com/rtatman/us-candy-production-by-month