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ADNC Severity Prediction: An Interpretable Machine Learning Case Study

Introduction

This project utilizes machine learning techniques such as Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to predict Alzheimer's Disease Neurological Change (ADNC) severity using the dataset from the Seattle Alzheimer's Disease Brain Cell Atlas (SEA-AD) Study.

Dataset

The dataset, used in this study, is sourced from the Seattle Alzheimer's Disease Brain Cell Atlas (SEA-AD) Study. It includes donor information, Lumiex data, and quantitative neuropathology summary data.

Preprocessing

The preprocessing of this dataset includes handling missing values and conducting feature selection. The ADNC target variable was transformed into a binary classification, representing low/intermediate severity and high severity.

Models

Several machine learning models, including Logistic Regression, Decision Tree Classifier, Gaussian Naive Bayes Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, and others, were trained and evaluated using cross-validation and performance metrics on validation and test sets.

The Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) classifier was selected due to its high performance and its suitability for demonstrating the interpretability of black-box models via LIME and SHAP techniques.

Results

The MLP model showed high ROC AUC, precision, recall, and F1-score. The model achieved a mean cross-validation score of 91.2%.

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