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EPU_GeneticAlgo

  • This project presents a new approach to building category-specific Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) indices by extracting keywords from texts via the genetic algorithm.
  • Knowing that the EPU indices vary with different sets of EPU terms, we let the EPU terms vary to fit a specific target variable to obtain the final optimized EPU index.
  • We proceed in three steps:
    • First, with initial EPU terms, we use a pre-trained word embedding space to extend the set of candidate keywords.
      • A word embedding space maps words into high dimensional vectors. Words with similar semantic meanings are close to each other in the space. We use the pre-trained embedding space from Pennington et al. with GloVe Technique.
    • Second, using the genetic algorithm, we search for the best subset of candidate keywords that matches the dynamics of a pre-determined target variable.
    • Last, following the same steps proposed by Baker et al. (2016), we build the new category-specific EPU index.

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