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probcast's Issues

new class object from covcor_matrix

  • i think introducing a class for the covariance matrices would make sampling a lot more user-friendly

  • e.g. if we have a temporal covariance matrix then having attributes for the lead time/or spatio-temporal matrices we could have attributes for location and lead time or something along those lines

  • at the moment the ordering of the matrix and marginal inputs is v. important in the sampling function, and could be confusing

Please do a better documentation

I came across this package which seems promising, but a critical part for mass adoption is proper documentation. Pointing people to an Example.R script isn't the right communication strategy. Can you guys please right tutorials on different use cases? Really appreciate it.

Comments from RSG

  • You could link to some resource (papers, blog posts, etc.) that describe more about what/why a user might want or need this package
  • The example script doesn't feel like an example, it feels like a work-in-progress. It has a lot of commented code but no explanations of why it is commented, there's no introduction as to what the script is going to do, nor any discussion of almost any kind
  • The example script also feels too long, with lots of unnecessary code included
  • The files holding your functions are not consistently named. There's MultiQR and MQR, underscores and CamelCase and snakeCase and lowercase.
  • There's odd string mangling in read_holiday_ics in DateFeatures.R. I think it will change e.g. "Year Fives" to "Year's".
  • It's actually just odd to have date features within this repository. I can see why it would be related to forecasting, but I'd expect that to be a separate package.

Predict and Update methods (to enable rolling window type forecasting)

We want to be able to:

  • store models fit using all data supplied to function (new class?)
  • make predictions based on new input data (s3 method?)
  • update model based on new input/output data (s3 method?)

Implementation:

  • Add option to existing fitting functions to return a list() that contains the [[1]]=MultiQR cv forecasts plus model info (model for each quantile, metadata e.g. quantiles). Model info given new class with name matching fitting function name, e.g. [[2]]="ProbCast_gbm"
  • Made sure not to save duplicates of data!!! May require manual removal...
  • Predict S3 method for above class: predict(object, newdata,...) return MultiQR
  • Update (start with GAM/mgcv and see how it goes...)

Actions

File Structure

Too many functions in single script. Need to reorganise into smaller files.

Aim to merge all branches and sort mid-May 2019

gamboostLSS naming of distribution parameters

Some distribution families return parameter names outwith the usual "mu", "sigma", "nu", "tau". For example see the BetaLSS() family.

Fixes required for the gamboostLSS_2_multiQR and gamboostLSS_2_PIT functions

Flexible tails in PIT

To date tails have been limited to [0,1] or fixed user specified max/min.

New functionality:

  1. Relative to p50 (allready in multi-qr-mboost branch)
  2. Function of p50/covariate
  3. User supplied vector of max/min values
  4. Extreme value theory (may need additional functions) - Generalised Pareto Distribution?

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