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PaulMelloy avatar PaulMelloy commented on June 27, 2024 1

I am going to close this issue as it has been addressed with the rainfall_multiplier branch of this repo. More experimentation is needed to discover actual coefficients that could be used as an estimator for the volume of spores dispersed in a spread event.
As a note from eyeballing the model in the rainfall_multiplier branch against field data it seems a better fit than without a rainfall multiplier. I suggest running permutations of the model with different rainfall multiplier values against field data to find the best coefficient here

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IhsanKhaliq avatar IhsanKhaliq commented on June 27, 2024

There is a rain cauchy mulitplier for rain splash dispersal reported by both Art and Coventry. I tried my best but couldn't find anything else. Would these work?

Screen Shot 2021-08-06 at 8 32 19 am

Screen Shot 2021-08-06 at 8 35 52 am

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IhsanKhaliq avatar IhsanKhaliq commented on June 27, 2024

But these are related to the distance spread. We want something related to the amount of spore release?

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PaulMelloy avatar PaulMelloy commented on June 27, 2024

Yes, something related to rainfall in millimetres influencing the number of "effective spores" spread

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IhsanKhaliq avatar IhsanKhaliq commented on June 27, 2024

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PaulMelloy avatar PaulMelloy commented on June 27, 2024

On another note the model at the moment the model uses the number of new growing points produced in the last day (24h) to influence the max_interception_probability.

ascotraceR/R/one_day.R

Lines 55 to 57 in f19aec5

max_interception_probability <-
interception_probability(target_density = 5 * max(daily_vals[["paddock"]][,new_gp]),
k = spore_interception_parameter)

In the table above there is a reference that new growing points might influence max_interception_probability for the 4-5 days prior?

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PaulMelloy avatar PaulMelloy commented on June 27, 2024

Actually now I think about this...
That would explain the 5 *
multiplier, so disregard that question

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IhsanKhaliq avatar IhsanKhaliq commented on June 27, 2024

Yes, that calculation should take of that. Indirectly, max_interception_probability or deposition probability would depend on the number of susceptible growing points that are not infected yet

Screen Shot 2021-08-06 at 10 08 34 am

&

Screen Shot 2021-08-06 at 10 07 39 am

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