This repository contains the files of my project for the "Production Planning" course at Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic).

The dataset contains 6 tables, containing the actual demands for 6 type of products belonging to 3 groups:

• Group 1 (G1): M1, M3, and M4
• Group 2 (G2): M2 and M5
• Group 3 (G3): M6

This phase focuses on 3 major contributions:

1. Predicting the demands for each group at the next 6 steps in the time series, implementing and using various forecasting methods such as Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Linear Regression (LR).
2. Conducting error analysis on the resulting predictions from the forecasting methods, calculating MFE and MAE for each of them.
3. Calculating the tracking signal for each forecasting method.

Our demand forecasting section contains 5 methods:

1. Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) with alpha=0.3.
2. Simple Moving Average (SMA) with n=3.
3. Weighted Moving Average (WMA) with weights=[0.2, 0.3, 0.5].
4. Linear Regression (LR)
5. Adjusted Linear Regression (ALR) with cycle_length=12.

This section's results can be found at ./1.%20Demand%20Forecasting/output.xlsx. However, we can have a glimpse at the tracking signals:

In this phase, we use the forecasts of the first phase in the S&OP of these 3 product groups, modeling an LP problem and conducting sensitivity analysis on two of its parameters.

The objective function, constraints, parameters, and decision variables can be found at ./2. S&OP/report.pdf. Also, the implementation of this problem in Python's PuLP can be found at ./2. S&OP/notebook.ipynb. Moreover, the solved model is exported and saved at ./2. S&OP/model.json.

total cost: 59338527006666.664

As said, sensitivity analysis is conducted on two following parameters:

rs = 12000000,	total cost: 55962663006666.664
rs = 13000000,	total cost: 57087951006666.664
rs = 14000000,	total cost: 58213239006666.664
rs = 15000000,	total cost: 59338527006666.664
rs = 16000000,	total cost: 60463815006666.664
rs = 17000000,	total cost: 61589103006666.664
rs = 18000000,	total cost: 62714391006666.664

hc = 1200000,	total cost: 59137368606666.664
hc = 1600000,	total cost: 59204421406666.664
hc = 2000000,	total cost: 59271474206666.664
hc = 2400000,	total cost: 59338527006666.664
hc = 2800000,	total cost: 59405579806666.664
hc = 3200000,	total cost: 59472632606666.664
hc = 3600000,	total cost: 59539685406666.664

In the final phase, MPS is developed and MRP is conducted for each product group. More details can be found at ./3. MPS and MRP/notebook.ipynb and ./3. MPS and MRP/report.pdf.