Part of the MIGRATE (Modelling Demography and Adaptation in the Initial Peopling of the Eastern Mediterranean Islandscape) project, under the auspices of the European Union Research and Innovation Foundation for Research, Technological Development and Innovation "Restart 2016-2020".

lead investigator: Dr Theodora Moutsiou
key personnel: Dr Christian Reepmeyer, Associate Professor Stella Demesticha, Dr Vasiliki Kassianidou, Dr Athos Agapiou, Dr Zomenia Zomeni, Professor Corey Bradshaw
collaborators: Dr Frédérik Saltré, Dr Salvador Herrando-Pérez

Project MIGRATE seeks to offer novel insights into population dynamics and range shifts that resulted in dispersals from the Eastern Mediterranean mainland to the island of Cyprus at a critical period (Late Pleistocene, 45-12 ka) through stochastic spatial modelling. This advanced modelling will enhance our understanding of timing, and climatic and social factors important in the initial colonisation of Cyprus. The proposed project aims to establish new research domains in the field of Cypriot archaeology extending traditional chronological frontiers beyond the Holocene (current Warm Period), encompassing innovative and interdisciplinary methodologies at the forefront of archaeological research.

• Bradshaw, CJA, C Reepmeyer, F Saltré, A Agapiou, V Kassinadiou, S Demesticha, Z Zomeni, M Polidorou, T Moutsiou. 2023. Demographic models predict end-Pleistocene arrival and rapid expansion of pre-agropastoralist humans in Cyprus. Research Square (pre-print) doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3468157/v1 (see also related Github repository)
• Moutsiou T. 2021. Climate, environment and cognition in the colonisation of the Eastern Mediterranean islands during the Pleistocene. Quaternary International 577:1-14
• Moutsiou T, C Reepmeyer, V Kassianidou, Z Zomeni, A Agapiou A. 2021. Modelling the Pleistocene colonisation of Eastern Mediterranean islandscapes. PLoS One 16:e0258370

Bradshaw, CJA, F Saltré, S Herrando-Pérez, C Reepmeyer, T Moutsiou. Human arrival on Cyprus and the mechanisms of hunting native megafauna to extinction (in preparation)

The code presented in this repository tests how palaeolithic peoples could have hunted dwarf hippopotamus (Phanourios minor 🦛) and dwarf elephants (Palaeoloxodon cypriotes 🐘) to extinction in the Late Pleistocene.

R code by Corey Bradshaw (@cjabradshaw), Frédérik Saltré (@fredsaltre), and Salvador Herrando-Pérez

• base hippo & elephant model.R: stochastic, age-structured demographic projection models for both megafauna species
• offtake hippo & elephant model.R: stochastic models simulating incrementing offtake rates for both megafauna species (requires running 'base' models first)
• meat equivalents hippo & elephant model.R: stochastic models simulating how incrementing population sizes of humans translates to loss of individuals of both megafauna species (requires running 'base' models first)

• matrixOperators.r: functions for manipulating matrices for population projections

• qx-Nicolaou.csv: life-table estimates of age-specific survival for Phanourios minor from Nicolaou et al. (2020: Quat Int 568:55-64)
• ssdHuman.csv: stable-stage distribution of paleaolithic humans from Bradshaw et al. (2023: doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3468157/v1)