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salespredict's Introduction

salesPredict

ARIMA模型简介

ARIMA模型提供了基于时间序列理论,对数据进行平稳化处理(AR和MA过程)、模型定阶(自动差分过程)、参数估计,建立模型,并对模型进行检验。 在Python中statsmodel提供了全套的解决方案,包括窗口选择、自动定阶和平稳性检测等等算法。

预测策略

每月分上中下旬三个点预测,每月预测三次当月销量。这么做的好处是,月上旬和中旬的实际销量可以作为先验知识,提高模型预测的准确率。

环境

  • Windows 10
  • Python 3.6.5

依赖包

pip install -r requirements.txt

程序执行

python sales.py

建模过程


预测效果测试


线上预测效果

截止到8月15日累计销量486,预测8月份销量为889

salespredict's People

Contributors

simonwang00 avatar

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