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validate-forecast-methods

validate-forecast-methods provides the R source code used in the project:

Bohk-Ewald, Christina, Peng Li, and Mikko Myrskylä (2017). Assessing the accuracy of cohort fertility forecasts. Presented in session: Statistical methods in demography at the PAA 2017 Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, USA, April 27-April 29, 2017

How to run

The code needs to be executed in eight steps, as defined by step-*.R files in the root directory. You can run these scripts separately or all at once with step-0-all-steps-at-once.R

Prerequisites

  • The .txt files in ./input-data/ contain empty lists due to copyrights. You will need to put in fertility data yourself. See comments for step 2 in [step-0-all-steps-at-once.R].

  • Make sure you have configured the correct paths (in each of the nine step-*.R files).

Execution

You can run all steps all at once step-0-all-steps-at-once.R (recommended) or you can run the step-*.R scripts in the root directory in the prescribed order.

How to cite

If you use this code for academic research, please cite the above conference talk.

How to contribute

Please note that this source code is an academic project. We welcome any issues and pull requests.

License

The source code of validate-forecast-methods is published under the GNU General Public License version 3.

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validate-forecast-methods's Issues

Step 4 Warnings: NaNs produced

I run the following code using data downloaded from HFD today.

run_projection_for_selected_methods(asfr_period,
                                    expos_period,
                                    JOYs=2013:2014,
                                    validation_methods_info,
                                    forecasts_by_method_folder="results/forecasts-by-method-test")

The process is completed successfully. However, the following warnings are returned too:

There were 50 or more warnings (use warnings() to see the first 50)
> warnings()
Warning messages:
1: In pt(abs(tstat), df = ndof) : NaNs produced
2: In pt(abs(tstat), df = ndof) : NaNs produced
3: ...

Is this a normal behaviour?

Step 1 nuptfer

The nuptfer package can be found only on GitHub.
Maybe you should let the users know about this.

Step 4 Error

Hi Christina,

Very nice paper, very nice code.
I am trying to reproduce your results. And I encountered the following error in step 4.

Method09_PeristeraKostaki2007M2: 2013  2014  Extract results
Calculate CFR...done.
Method10_MyrskylaGoldstein2013: Error in source("basic-scripts-forecast-methods/Method10_MyrskylaGoldstein2013/Method10_MyrskylaGoldstein2013.R") : 
  invalid multibyte character in parser at line 384

Going to line 384 in can see

                method="Myrskyl? and Goldstein (2013)",

Replacing ? with a would solve the issue.

I suspect that this problem is generated by the fact that your PC might use a different encoding system that supports special characters (german letters etc.). The solution would be to avoid using special characters, otherwise on a UTF-8 character encoding these will be replaced with ?.

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