Russian Prediction Losses in Russo-Ukraine War
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine ๐ก
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Key Takeaways
- By October 2023, russian personnel losses may reach 190.000+ mark.
- 300.000+ is an upper bound.
- 77.000+ is a lower bound which very soon will be reached. As per 2022-10-11 russian perssonel loses are 63.110+.
- Top 3 losses groups are: personnel, armored vehicles, tanks.
Project Goals
- What is the avarage losses per day per each group?
- How many personnel losses will be in a one year projection?
Data Sources
Publicly available from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (News tab). Not an API, parsed by myself using own script.
Analysis Methods
- Explorary data analysis.
- Forecasting procedure using Prophet.
Tech Stack
- Python
- refer to
requriments.txt
for all packages.
- refer to
Results
What more could be done
- Extract daily newly losses, not total per day.
- Answer the question: "what day has the most losses and why".