Russian Prediction Losses in Russo-Ukraine War

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine 😡

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Key Takeaways

• By October 2023, russian personnel losses may reach 190.000+ mark.
  • 300.000+ is an upper bound.
  • 77.000+ is a lower bound which very soon will be reached. As per 2022-10-11 russian perssonel loses are 63.110+.
• Top 3 losses groups are: personnel, armored vehicles, tanks.

Project Goals

1. What is the avarage losses per day per each group?
2. How many personnel losses will be in a one year projection?

Data Sources

Publicly available from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (News tab). Not an API, parsed by myself using own script.

Analysis Methods

• Explorary data analysis.
• Forecasting procedure using Prophet.

Tech Stack

• Python
  • refer to requriments.txt for all packages.

Results

What more could be done

• Extract daily newly losses, not total per day.
• Answer the question: "what day has the most losses and why".