The goal of this repository is to present and store human judgment forecasts of transmission and burden of the monkeypox virus (MPXV). Questions related to human monkeypox and MXPV are hosted by Metaculus. Metadata about the questions posed to the crowd can be found in metadata.csv. Ensemble forecast data is stored in two csv files: communitypredictions.csv and communityquantiles.csv

There is a Makefile included in this repository that downloads all ensemble forecasts from the Metaculus API and creates figures that were used in the associated manuscript.

A manuscript related to this work can be found at:

We would like to thank the following authors for their tireless work: Thomas McAndrew, Maimuna S. Majumder, Andrew Lover, Paolo Boccini, Tamay Besiroglu, Allison Codi, David Braun, Gaia Dempsey, Sam Abbott, Nikos Bosse, Juan Cambeiro

who are members of one or more of the following institutions Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, United States of America; Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, United States of America; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States of America; Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, P.C. Rossin College of Engineering and Applied Science, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, United States of America; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America; Metaculus, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London, WC1E 7HT, UK; Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, United States.

Correspondence and questions can be sent to Prof Thomas McAndrew [email protected]