https://ccrodriguez27.github.io/Population-Growth-Prediction-using-Multiple-Linear-Regression/

PREDICTION OF THE POPULATION GROWTH RATE USING SELECTED HEALTH AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS A Research Paper in Fulfillment of the Requirements in Statistics 136

Submitted by: Janette Alberto, Clarisse Rodriguez, Almira Zacarias

This research aims to create a model for predicting population growth rate using different health and socio-economic indicators. The economic indicators used in this study are the following: Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP), government expenditure on education (% of GDP), labor force participation rate (% of female population), food production index, cellular subscribers, and net migration rate. Meanwhile, the health indicators used are: antiretroviral therapy coverage among people with HIV infection eligible for ART according to 2010 guidelines, deaths due to HIV/ AIDS, deaths due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative people, incidence of tuberculosis, infant mortality rate, population median age, tuberculosis treatment coverage, under-five mortality rate, and contraceptive prevalence rate. The final regression model contains the following regressors: population median, Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, contraceptive prevalence rate, government expenditure on education (% of GDP), and percentage of the antiretroviral therapy coverage among people with HIV. After considering and administering various variable selection procedures and validating the necessary assumptions, four out of the five the regressors in the final model are found to be significant. The findings of this study can be used to highlight the importance of population growth rate in a country-level specification.