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Population Vulnerability Models.

Uploaded by Clemens Rumpf on May 29th 2018.

An asteroid impact on the Earth is expected to generate an array of impact effects that are harmful to humans. The vulnerability models in this release predict the fatality fraction of a human population that is exposed to a certain strength of these adverse effects. The considered effects are: Strong winds (comparable to tornados), overpressure shock (derived from nuclear explosions), thermal radiation, cratering, seismic shaking (earthquake), and ejecta deposition on houses leading to their collapse. The derivation of the models and their application are detailed in this paper specifically:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313857682_Population_Vulnerability_Models_for_Asteroid_Impact_Risk_Assessment

and in this PhD thesis in general:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318720877_Asteroid_impact_risk

The models were derived for asteroid impacts but could be used for other natural disasters that cause any of the effects listed above. Asteroid impacts can be calculated with online tools such as the Purdue Impact Earth program:

https://www.purdue.edu/impactearth

It is the nature of models that they are merely an approximation of the real world. With this in mind, one should exercise caution when making predictions of real world outcomes for disastrous events such as an asteroid impact or other natural phenomena based on the models presented here. It is important to consider how these models were derived and what event magnitude is most applicable. For example, I have used these models to predict the outcomes of impacting asteroids with diameters up to 400 m and not larger.