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abhinavyesss avatar abhinavyesss commented on September 21, 2024

When predicting we have to enter certain 'forcing' values, if those values are t, t+1, t+2... hours' values instead of t, t+6, t+12.... wouldn't that generate hourly values.

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Tlmnk avatar Tlmnk commented on September 21, 2024

An hourly model would indeed be very interesting for several use-cases. Assuming this model would be used for more short-term predicitons (0-48 hours ahead) it would further be great to optimize the forecast accuracy for 1 day lead-times instead of the 3.5 day lead-time it is currently optimized for.

@abhinavyesss : I think in order to produce meaningful hourly forecasts the model would have to be retrained on hourly ERA5 data instead of just adjusting the 'forcing' values.

@erinboyle : note that for commercial use cases like the energy market there would still be licensing issues since the model weights are published under the non-commercial CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.

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tewalds avatar tewalds commented on September 21, 2024

The challenge with training a 1 hour model is that we don't have good 1 hour data. ERA5 does indeed have 1 hour data, but it only incorporates new observations every 12 hours, so the other 11 hours are just predictions from the 2016 HRES model. This makes a model trained on 6 hour intervals have a weird learning problem where half the time it's learning real physics and half the time it's learning NWP model physics. This is somewhat (mainly?) mitigated by fine-tuning on the HRES dataset that incorporates real observations every 6 hours. Unfortunately we don't have any dataset that incorporates observations every 1 hour. It's certainly possible to train a model that trains on the 1 hour ERA5 data, but I wouldn't expect it to outperform HRES for the first 12 hours. It may outperform HRES when taking a better graphcast prediction as its input, but that is likely also out of distribution (due to blurring), so even that is not guaranteed. Either way, I agree that this would be a useful thing to have, but has a fair amount of challenges to do well.

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shermansiu avatar shermansiu commented on September 21, 2024

My guess is that MetNet-3 is more suitable for higher time resolution. Unfortunately, there are no official plans to open source MetNet-3.

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